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French Open: Alcaraz and Sinner the ones to beat at Roland-Garros

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Clock Icon5 hoursTennis

The end of the clay-court swing is upon us as attention turns to the second grand slam of the year at Roland-Garros.

Carlos Alcaraz reigned supreme in 2024, defeating Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev en route to claiming his maiden title at the French Open.

In doing so, he became the first player born since 1990 to win the men's singles title at Roland Garros.

He will face stiff competition if he wants to retain his crown, though, with world number one Sinner back on the court after his lengthy ban, having seemingly picked up where he left off.

Sinner impressed on his return at the Italian Open, before losing the showpiece, but after winning the Australian Open for the second year running back in January, he is now eyeing his first title at Roland-Garros.

Novak Djokovic is still chasing his record-breaking 25th major title, having been forced out due to injury in the semi-final in Melbourne. He won his first Olympic gold at this venue last year, and he will be hoping that is an omen to end his wait for a title since then.

Meanwhile, Zverev may feel he has a point to prove, having fallen well short of Sinner in the Australian Open, losing in straight sets in his first-ever major final.

We delve into the Opta data to preview the men's draw.

Can Alcaraz go back-to-back?

Alcaraz's first grand slam of the season saw him bow out after a thrilling encounter with Djokovic in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open, failing to make it past the last eight of the tournament for the second year running.

However, last year, that spurred the Spaniard to back-to-back major titles, as he won at Roland-Garros for the first time before then beating Djokovic to retain his Wimbledon crown.

Alcaraz became the youngest player in the Open Era to win men's singles grand slam titles on clay, grass and hard court, surpassing Rafael Nadal – only Steffi Graf and Serena Williams did it younger, both in the women's singles.

His triumph at the French Open also means he is the youngest player in the Open Era to win men's singles titles at three different Grand Slams (also the US Open and Wimbledon), surpassing Jimmy Connors.

Since his win in Paris last year, Alcaraz has continued to go from strength to strength, reaching seven ATP-Tour level finals and losing just two, though both of those did come on clay (Paris Olympics and Barcelona Open).

This year, he has won 15 of his 16 matches on the surface, with his victory in Rome sealing a 10th ATP title on clay.

But, perhaps more importantly, he seems to have Sinner's number.

The pair have never faced off in a grand slam final, but they did meet in an ATP Masters 1000 showpiece for the first time last week, with the Spaniard breezing to a straight-sets win to clinch a maiden Italian Open final.

By claiming his fourth consecutive win over Sinner, Alcaraz got his hands on a 19th Tour-level title, pulling level with the Italian for the most among players born in the 2000s, adding an extra layer to their exciting rivalry.

The only way they will meet at Roland-Garros is in the showpiece, setting up the stage for a truly epic showdown, as they are the youngest top two seeds at a major since the 2006 US Open (Roger Federer, aged 25, and Nadal, aged 20). We are still waiting for the first Sinner-Alcaraz grand slam final, too.

Can Sinner replicate hard-court dominance?

Sinner's year got off to the perfect start as he defended his Australian Open title and claimed a third major success overall.

In fact, he became only the fifth player in the Open Era to win three straight men's singles titles at grand slam events on hard court, after John McEnroe, Ivan Lendl, Federer and Djokovic.

After 104 days away from the game due to his ban, Sinner picked up where he left off in Rome, with his winning streak stretching to 26 games before Alcaraz snapped it in the final.

His dominance on hard courts is clear to see, with his 80% win rate the highest of any surface, though clay is ranked as his second-favourite surface (72%), with a 59-23 record.

Looking specifically at his history at Roland-Garros, he has a 76% win rate at the tournament, going 16-5, with his semi-final result last year the furthest he has gone, though no surprises, it was Alcaraz who ended his run.

Since the start of 2024, Sinner is 85-3 against everyone else other than Alcaraz, but 0-4 against the Spaniard in the same time.

With their only potential meeting slated for the final, should they both get there, it is a record the world number one will want to snap sooner rather than later.

He has reached the final in seven consecutive tournament appearances, though (between Cincinnati 2024 and Rome 2025), becoming the first player since Andy Murray in 2016, and the youngest since Ivan Lendl in 1982, to do so.

Sinner does not have it easy, with Djokovic on his side of the draw as a potential semi-final opponent, and he will face home favourites in the first two rounds, starting with Arthur Rinderknech.

If he were to triumph, Sinner (23 years and 282 days) would become the second-youngest man in the Open Era to win three consecutive titles at Grand Slam events, older than only Pete Sampras (22 years and 158 days, Wimbledon 1993-Australian Open 1994).

The outsiders

It is not often that Djokovic has been thought of as an outsider during his illustrious career, but he had been enduring a difficult season.

However, he comes into Roland-Garros on the back of claiming his first title since last year's Olympics, as he won the Geneva Open on Saturday.

That also marked his 100th ATP Tour-level title, as he joined Connors and Roger Federer on the list of male players to achieve the feat.

Djokovic's first ATP title came on the clay in Amersfoort, and he has since gone on to win 20 events on the surface, including three triumphs at the French Open.

He has a 96-16 record at Roland-Garros, boasting an 86% win rate. It is the grand slam that he has won the fewest times, though he has reached the final on seven occasions.

The 38-year-old is still chasing the grand slam title that would eclipse Margaret Court's record of 25, but he has not got his hands on a major trophy since the 2023 US Open. But he won the last time he was at Roland-Garros, as he collected Olympic gold for the first time.

Elsewhere, Zverev will be hoping to end his wait for a major triumph, having fallen at the final hurdle three times and finished as a runner-up to Alcaraz at the French Open last year.

With a 107-36 record, Zverev has a 74.8% win ratio at grand slams. That is the best win percentage of any man not to win a major title in the Open Era (minimum 10 matches played).

He has won just one title this year, though, beating Ben Shelton in Munich. An early exit in Hamburg only compounded Zverev's frustrations.

Casper Ruud will also be looking to make his mark in Paris, at the grand slam where he has enjoyed some of his best performances.

He reached the final in back-to-back years (2022 and 2023) and made it to the final four last season before losing in four sets to eventual runner-up Zverev.

The Norwegian has impressed on clay again in 2025, including winning his maiden ATP Masters 1000 title at the Madrid Open earlier this month.

He defeated Jack Draper in the Spanish capital, and the Brit has certainly made his mark this season. Like Ruud, he won his first-ever Masters 1000 title this year, beating Holger Rune to triumph at Indian Wells.

The deepest he has gone in a grand slam is to the last four at last year's US Open, where he was defeated by eventual champion Sinner.

But at the French Open, he has a 0-2 record, never making it past the first round. He has a 56% win rate on clay (18-14), though with his recent improvement, he could prove an outside threat.