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Women's Super League predictions: Chelsea and Arsenal square off in pursuit of leaders Man City

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Following a weekend of FA Cup action and a round of midweek League Cup fixtures, the Women's Super League resumes on matchday 13, with some intriguing fixtures taking place at both ends of the table. 

Manchester City are six points clear at the summit and take on the London City Lionesses on Saturday, but Chelsea's clash with Arsenal headlines this round of WSL matches. 

The Blues can pull further clear of Renee Slegers' side with a win as they aim to keep up the pressure at the top, while the Gunners are hoping to breathe fresh life into their slim title prospects.

But Arsenal also have one eye on the teams directly behind them, as the race for the Champions League qualification hots up.

Tottenham and Manchester United have aspirations of playing in Europe next season, and they face Liverpool and Aston Villa, respectively, this weekend. 

At the opposite end of the WSL, Everton and Brighton square off while West Ham and Leicester City do battle, with all of those teams looking to avoid being dragged into the mire of a relegation scrap.

Ahead of another full WSL fixture list, we take a look at the Opta data to see who might be MD13's winners and losers. 

EVERTON V BRIGHTON

The action kicks off at Goodison Park on Friday, with Everton welcoming Brighton to Merseyside as both teams aim for a return to winning ways in the WSL.

Kerolin and Vivianne Miedema led Man City to victory over the Toffees last time out in the league, while two goals in the space of a minute saw Aston Villa down Brighton. 

And according to the Opta supercomputer, it is Everton who are fancied for this one, with Brian Sorensen's side winning 43.3% of our pre-match simulations compared to the Seagulls' 30% win probability. A draw is given a 26.7% chance of happening. 

Despite being favoured in the predictions, Everton have won just one of their last five WSL home games against Brighton (D1 L3), triumphing 2-1 on the penultimate matchday of the 2022-23 campaign.

The Toffees are also currently on their longest losing streak at home in the WSL (five games), going 1-0 behind in the opening 30 minutes in four of those five matches.

Brighton, meanwhile, have already lost two league games this season despite taking the lead, including last time out against Villa (1-2), but the Seagulls have never lost three separate matches from a winning position in the same WSL campaign.

And there could be a debut for one of Brighton's January arrivals.

During the first phase of this season's Women's Champions League, only seven midfielders played more passes into the penalty area than Olaug Tvedten (23), who has arrived from Valerenga. FC Twente's Jill Roord (26) was the only midfielder to record more for a team from outside Europe's top five leagues. 

CHELSEA V ARSENAL

The standout tie on matchday 13 takes place early on Saturday, with reigning WSL title holders Chelsea taking on European champions Arsenal at Stamford Bridge. 

Chelsea are unbeaten in each of their last six WSL home games against Arsenal, winning five of those (D1), since a 5-0 defeat in October 2018.  

The Blues have also lost only one of their 23 WSL games played on a Saturday since 2017 (W19 D3), losing 1-0 at Reading in December 2021. They have won each of their last eight home league matches on Saturdays.

Since the start of last season, in games between last campaign's top four (Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd, Man City), Chelsea are averaging 2.6 points per game (P9 W7 D2), while the other three sides are all averaging 1.1 points or fewer.

Sonia Bompastor's side are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches against those teams, since a 1-0 home defeat to Man City in February 2024.  

Arsenal have drawn three of their last five WSL games (W2) and five matches in total this season, their most ever in a WSL campaign. The Gunners could fail to win both of their first two league games of a calendar year for the fourth time in the last six years (D1 L1 in 2021 and 2022, D2 in 2023).     

And the Gunners are in need of goals. They have failed to score in two of their last four WSL games, drawing 0-0 with both Spurs and Man Utd. They have a conversion rate of 11% in the league this season, their worst rate in a top-flight campaign since 2015 (10.3%).    

Despite only one place and three points separating these teams, who sit second and third, the Opta supercomputer has heavily backed Chelsea to take all three points. 

Across 10,000 data-led simulations, the Blues emerged victorious in 61.5% of scenarios, while Arsenal were assigned an 18.2% chance of a derby win.

LONDON CITY LIONESSES V MANCHESTER CITY

With the two teams below them squaring off 24 hours before their clash with London City, Man City could extend their lead at the summit to as many as nine points. 

And they are backed to pick up their 12th win of the season by the Opta supercomputer, with the pre-match simulations handing them a 71.3% win probability, the highest of any side in the WSL this weekend. The Lionesses won just 12.7%, while a draw was given a likelihood of 16%. 

The fact that City were so well-fancied could be down to their record against new teams to enter the WSL. They have won 26 of their 27 games against newly promoted opposition, with the sole exception coming in a 2-1 loss to Liverpool in May 2023.

Indeed, the only previous meeting between London City and Man City in all competitions came on MD4 this season, with the Citizens winning 4-1 at Joie Stadium.

But London City have improved since then. They have won 16 points from their opening 12 WSL matches this season (W5 D1 L6), with only two newly promoted sides accumulating more at this stage of a WSL campaign: Sunderland in 2015 (20 points) and Man Utd in 2019-20 (19 points).  

However, City have won each of their last 11 WSL games and are seeking to become just the second side to win 12 of their opening 13 matches of a WSL campaign, alongside Chelsea last season.  

On MD12, London City's Eder Maestre became just the fifth Spanish manager to take charge of a match in the WSL, and of those, only Ismael Garcia won their opening home game in the competition, beating Sunderland with Arsenal during a spell as interim boss in November 2017.

City, though, have won their last four away matches in the WSL, scoring at least two goals in each victory (12 in total). Indeed, it is their longest winning streak on the road since a run of eight wins between November 2023 and May 2024, under Gareth Taylor.  

LIVERPOOL V TOTTENHAM

There hasn't been much for Liverpool to shout about this season, with the Reds still searching for their first WSL victory of the campaign, but a 4-0 victory over the London Bees in the FA Cup last weekend offered a moment of respite in a bleak campaign. 

They return to league action this Sunday, with European hopefuls Tottenham the visitors to St Helens Stadium, and the Reds have had promising results in this fixture.

Indeed, Liverpool are unbeaten in three previous WSL home games against Tottenham (W1 D2), though they did have to come from 2-1 down at half-time in this fixture last season to earn a point (2-2).

Spurs did, though, beat Liverpool 2-1 in the reverse fixture earlier this season and will be aiming to complete a top-flight double over the Reds for the first time.

As previously mentioned, Liverpool are the only side yet to register a league win in 2025-26. They are winless across their opening 12 WSL games this season (D4 L8), with only four sides failing to win more games following the start of a campaign in the competition's history. 

The Reds have also dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the WSL this term (11), failing to win all four of the league games in which they have led (D1 L3). 

Tottenham, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last four matches in the WSL (W2 D2), last achieving a longer run between March and May 2024 under Robert Vilahamn (five).

But the Opta supercomputer still struggles to split these two sides.

With home advantage behind them, Liverpool are assigned a 37.5% win probability, marginally higher than Spurs' 36.1%, while a stalemate occurred in 26.4% of simulations. 

LEICESTER CITY V WEST HAM

The King Power Stadium will be the venue for a basement battle, with Leicester City facing West Ham in a game that could prove crucial to both teams' survival hopes.

The Foxes, after losing to Tottenham last time out, have won just one of their last 10 WSL games (D3 L6), earning a 1-0 home win over London City on MD11.

West Ham, meanwhile, were thumped 5-0 by Chelsea in their last league game. Indeed, the Hammers have only won one of their last 14 matches in the WSL (D2 L11), defeating Everton 3-1 on MD9. They have also won just one of their last 22 away league games (D3 L18).

West Ham have failed to score in more games than any other side in the WSL this season (six), which is as many goalless games as they endured in the entirety of last season.

Leicester have won only one of their last seven WSL games against West Ham (D3 L3), but that victory did come in this fixture last season, winning 4-2 under Amandine Miquel.

And the Foxes may repeat the trick here. The Opta supercomputer assigns the hosts a 45% win probability, compared to West Ham's 28.1% chance of taking all three points. 

ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER UNITED

The weekend's action concludes at Villa Park with Aston Villa taking on Man Utd, who are out to get their quest for European football back on track following a goalless draw with Arsenal in their last league game. 

Indeed, the Red Devils have now drawn their last two WSL matches. No team has recorded three consecutive draws in the competition since United did so themselves between October and November 2024, when the second game in that run came against Arsenal and the third against Aston Villa (0-0).   

But that stretch is expected to end here, with Marc Skinner's team emerging victorious in 55.9% of the supercomputer's simulations, compared to Villa's win probability of 22.1%. A draw is rated as marginally less likely, at 22%. 

That could be down to the fact that United have won four of their five previous away games against Villa in the WSL (D1), winning 4-0 in this exact fixture last season.

The Villans went winless across their first 10 WSL meetings with United (D2 L8) but ran out 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture back in November.  

Villa should enter this clash with confidence, though, having won two of their last three league games (L1), as many victories as they chalked up across their opening nine matches this season (W2 D4 L3).

Both victories came at home, and the Villans could win three in a row on home soil for the first time ever in the WSL.

And United will need to look out for Rachel Daly, who has scored four of Villa's five WSL goals against United, also netting three goals in her last two league outings at home. She last netted in three straight at Villa Park in November 2023, a run of four that included a strike versus the Red Devils.

But she may find it a bit more difficult to find the back of the net here. Since her WSL debut on MD1 of the 2024-25 campaign, only Chelsea's Hannah Hampton (18) has kept more clean sheets than United's Phallon Tullis-Joyce (17). 

Lola Gallardo, Cata Coll (both 21), Adriana Nanclares and Christiane Endler (both 19) are the only other goalkeepers in Europe's top five leagues to record more shutouts in that spell.