Arsenal sent out a statement of their title intentions on Tuesday, ending 2025 with an emphatic 4-1 win over Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium.

And the Gunners received a further boost ahead of their first game of 2026, as Sunderland held Manchester City to a goalless draw on New Year's Day.

The Opta supercomputer now rates Arsenal's chances of lifting the Premier League trophy at 79%, though Mikel Arteta's men have been in this position before.

In fact, since last being crowned champions of England in 2004, Arsenal have failed to win the title after being top at New Year's on five occasions.

Arteta will be acutely aware of the need to underline Tuesday's headline victory with another positive result ahead of their trip to Bournemouth, who did a Premier League double over the Gunners last season. 

Here, we dive into the Opta data to preview Saturday's late kick-off, picking out the key players and storylines to watch.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is firmly behind Arsenal ahead of this game, with their 61.3% win probability the highest assigned to any away Premier League team on matchday 20.

Bournemouth are only handed an 18.4% chance of success, with 20.2% of the Opta supercomputer's pre-match simulations seeing the points shared.

However, Andoni Iraola's side have a recent history of troubling Arsenal.

Having won just one of their first 14 Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, 11 defeats), Bournemouth did the double over the Gunners last season.

The Cherries triumphed 2-0 in the corresponding fixture at the Vitality Stadium in October 2024, dealing Arsenal their first loss of 2024-25, and then earned a 2-1 success in the away game last May.

However, Arsenal were not top of the pile going into either of those matchups, and Bournemouth have lost 12 of their 13 Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table, with the exception being a 2-1 home win over Man City in November 2024.

Arsenal have only lost their opening Premier League game in one of the last 10 calendar years (seven wins, two draws), going down 2-1 at home to City on New Year's Day 2022.

And Bournemouth – who started 2025 with a 1-0 win over Everton – have not won their opening league match in consecutive calendar years since 2011-2012, when they beat Swindon Town and Wycombe Wanderers, both in League One.

Bournemouth are in dreadful form, but they can fall back upon a good record at the Vitality Stadium. 

After losing four consecutive home league games between February and April last year, Bournemouth have lost just two of their last 13 (six wins, five draws). They have only lost once at home this season, going down 1-0 against Everton in December.

Semenyo to say farewell against future title rivals?

Bournemouth appear set to lose their standout player in the January transfer window.

Antoine Semenyo reportedly has a £65m release clause in his contract, and all the signs are that he will soon become a Man City player.

But Iraola was adamant on Friday that the Ghanaian will be involved this weekend, and it is unlikely City will want to hurry negotiations along before he faces their title rivals.

No Bournemouth player has scored more goals (nine), recorded more assists (three), had more shots (45), more touches in the opposition box (86) or played more passes into the box (96) than Semenyo in the Premier League this season.

Further highlighting his importance to Iraola's system, across the entire Premier League, only five players have been involved in more open-play shot-ending sequences this season.

Semenyo's total of 87 open-play attacking sequence involvements includes 42 shots, created 23 chances, and registered 22 involvements in moves that led to a shot. 

Only Bruno Fernandes (116), Dominik Szoboszlai (102), Phil Foden (97), Enzo Fernandez (95) and Bukayo Saka (92) have totalled more, with Declan Rice level with Semenyo.

And Semenyo is also an asset outside open play, with both of Bournemouth's goals in Tuesday's 2-2 draw with Chelsea – which proved to be the Blues' final game under Enzo Maresca – coming from long throws taken by Semenyo. 

Despite Semenyo's excellent form, Bournemouth are enduring their worst-ever windless run as a Premier League team, going 10 without victory (five draws, five losses) within a single top-flight season for the very first time.

If the Cherries are to reverse their slide down the table, which has left them only nine points clear of the relegation zone, they will have to find a capable replacement for Semenyo.

But that is a problem for another day, and on Saturday, he could earn some goodwill from City's supporters before even signing on the dotted line at the Etihad Stadium.

Gabriel and Odegaard shining after injury issues

It has not been plain sailing for Arsenal on the injury front this season, and Arteta confirmed on Friday that defenders Riccardo Calafiori and Cristhian Mosquera will miss this match.

Declan Rice is also a doubt after missing the Villa game due to a knock, which he sustained while deputising at right-back for a 2-1 win over Brighton.

Gabriel Magalhaes made his first start since November 8 against Villa, getting the all-important breakthrough with a close-range header from Saka's corner.

The Brazilian has scored 19 Premier League goals for Arsenal since his competition debut in September 2020, more than any other defender has managed in that time.

And his aerial prowess was a major reason for Arsenal scoring 17 goals from corners in the Premier League in 2025 – only Manchester United in 2012 (18) have ever netted more in a single calendar year.

From all set-pieces excluding penalties, Arsenal found the net 20 times in 2025 after doing so 21 times in 2024. They are only the second team to reach 20+ Premier League goals from dead balls in successive calendar years, after Wimbledon between 1993 and 1996.

But Arsenal's win over Villa was about far more than set-plays, as they produced arguably their most scintillating performance of the season in the second half.

Martin Odegaard was one of their best performers on Tuesday, combining tenacity and guile to dispossess Jadon Sancho, saunter to the edge of Villa's area, and tee up Martin Zubimendi to put Arsenal two goals to the good.

That assist was one of the seven line-breaking passes Odegaard played over the course of the game, more than any other Arsenal player.

The Norway international has had injury problems of his own this season, only playing 42% of Arsenal's total Premier League minutes (718 of a possible 1,710), but he has still played more line-breaking passes into the penalty area than any other Arsenal player (16).

If Arsenal are to go the distance in the title race, they will need Gabriel and Odegaard to remain among their standout performers, and a swift return to fitness for Rice would help, too.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Bournemouth – David Brooks

Brooks scored in Bournemouth's first Premier League game of 2025, versus Everton in January, and in their last game of the year at Chelsea.

However, the Wales international failed to net in any of their other matches in the competition in between. Can he make it back-to-back games with a goal here?

Arsenal – Leandro Trossard 

Trossard has the most assists (four) and joint-most goals (five) of any Arsenal player in the Premier League this season, having both scored and assisted against Aston Villa.

The Belgian also finished 2025 ahead of all his Arsenal team-mates for Premier League goals (10), assists (nine) and total goal involvements (19) during the calendar year.