West Ham and Arsenal meet at the London Stadium on Sunday, with the result set to have implications at the top and bottom of the Premier League table.

Back-to-back wins for Arsenal in the league, coupled with Manchester City dropping points in a 3-3 draw with Everton on Monday, have seen the Gunners open up a five-point cushion at the summit with three games left to play. Pep Guardiola's chasers have four games remaining.

And Arsenal have had quite the week, as they booked their place in a first Champions League final since 2006 with a 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.

But while Arsenal are flying high, West Ham are now back in danger after a 3-0 loss to Brentford last weekend caused more damage than they had hoped.

Tottenham's win over Aston Villa on Sunday meant Roberto De Zerbi's side moved out of the relegation zone at West Ham’s expense, though a win over the league leaders would put the pressure back on Spurs, who are not in action until Monday.

But will West Ham be able to cause an upset, or will Mikel Arteta's side consolidate top spot?

We use Opta data to look at the key storylines ahead of this weekend's meeting.

What's expected?

Arsenal have a very strong record against West Ham, so it is not a big surprise that the Opta supercomputer is heavily favouring them to walk away with all three points.

West Ham have lost 38 Premier League games against Arsenal – they have only lost more often against Liverpool (39), while the Gunners have only beaten Everton more (40).

That run includes the reverse fixture, with Arsenal recording a 2-0 win back at the Emirates Stadium in October. They have completed the Premier League double over the Hammers 12 times previously, with only Manchester United doing so more often against any opponent (16 vs Aston Villa, 14 vs Everton).

Arsenal have also won their last two away league games against West Ham, 6-0 in 2023-24 and 5-2 last season.

In English league history, only West Brom have scored at least five goals in three consecutive away games against an opponent (vs Birmingham City between 1957 and 1960).

And the Gunners are given a 58.1% win probability compared to West Ham's 19.3%, meaning Nuno Espirito Santo's side will have to upset the odds to boost their hopes of staying in the Premier League.

A draw has a 22.6% chance of occurring, which would not be enough to move West Ham out of the drop zone and would potentially open the door again for City at the summit.

Nuno hoping to avoid hammer blow in relegation fight

After MD35, West Ham are now the favourites to go down to the Championship along with Wolves and Burnley, with the supercomputer giving them an 80.3% chance of finishing in 18th place.

They are still given an 18.7% chance of finishing in 17th, at the expense of Spurs, but West Ham have a huge mountain to climb if they do not want that Brentford result to be looked at as the pivotal moment in their campaign.

A 3-0 scoreline hardly told the full story of the match, though, with West Ham keeping up an attacking threat throughout as they managed 13 shots, just one fewer than Brentford managed, though they did only accumulate 0.9 expected goals (xG).

West Ham also became only the fourth team to hit the woodwork at least three times in a Premier League game this season (also Liverpool versus Man Utd in October, Brentford versus Sunderland in January and Chelsea against Man Utd last month).

Ignoring, for a moment, West Ham's awful record against Arsenal in the Premier League, they will feel more confident being back on home soil this weekend.

They are unbeaten in their last six top-flight home games (W3 D3), last having a longer run on home soil between September 2015 and April 2016, in their final season at Upton Park (15 games).

However, West Ham have lost all five of their home London derbies in the Premier League this season.

No team in English league history have ever lost six home games against fellow London teams in a single campaign.

They won last time out at London Stadium against European-chasing Everton, though, leaving it late to snatch all three points through Callum Wilson in the 92nd minute.

West Ham have scored two winning goals in the 90th minute or later in the Premier League in 2026, only one fewer than they did across 2022 (0), 2023 (one), 2024 (two) and 2025 (0) combined (three); Wilson has scored both, also netting against Spurs in January.  

Arteta chases another fast start

Despite a banner week for Arsenal, Arteta will not let his team lose their focus with a double still very much on the cards.

Their hopes of winning the Premier League title for the first time since 2003-04 currently sit at 85.3% according to the supercomputer, but the gap at the top could be cut to two by the time this game kicks off, with Man City facing Brentford on Saturday.

After their win over Atletico, Arsenal equalled their club record for the most wins in a single season (41 across all competitions), previously winning 41 in the 1970-71 campaign.

They came out firing against Fulham last weekend, scoring all three goals in a stunning first-half display in which they accumulated 2.5 expected goals (xG); it was their highest total in the first 45 minutes of a Premier League game this season.

And fast starts have aided them recently. Arsenal have scored the opening goal in the first 10 minutes of each of their last two top-flight games, netting in the ninth minute against both Newcastle United and Fulham.

They have not done so in three straight matches since September and October 2002 against Leeds United, Sunderland and Everton, and how Arteta would love another quick goal to settle any nerves.

He will, of course, also put a lot of stock in their set-piece prowess. Arsenal have scored 27 such goals in the Premier League this season, more than any other side, with their 17 from corners also the most by a team in any season ever.

A crucial cog has also returned for Arsenal in recent weeks, with Bukayo Saka slotting straight back in after returning from injury.

His goal sent the Gunners into the Champions League final, while against Fulham, he scored (one) and assisted (one) in a Premier League game for the first time since November 2024 against West Ham (one goal, two assists), and for the 11th time overall in the competition.

It is an even more timely return given his record against the Hammers. He has been involved in more top-flight goals against West Ham than any other opponent (five goals, four assists), with these nine involvements coming in his last eight appearances against them.

Arsenal also remain strong at the other end, though. They have kept 30 clean sheets across all competitions this season, their most in a single campaign since 1993-94 (30) and most by a top-flight team since Liverpool in 2021-22 (32).

However, Arteta confirmed on Friday that full-back Jurrien Timber may not feature for the rest of the season, with the same true for midfielder Mikel Merino. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

West Ham – Jarrod Bowen

Bowen has seven assists across his last six home Premier League appearances for West Ham, which makes up his total tally of home assists for 2025-26.

Only Paolo Di Canio (nine in 1999-00) and Eyal Berkovic (eight in both 1997-98 and 1998-99) have assisted more home goals in a season for the Hammers.

And only Man Utd captain Bruno Fernandes (12) has recorded more Premier League assists in 2026 than Bowen (nine).

Arsenal – Viktor Gyokeres

Gyokeres has scored nine goals in his last 12 Premier League appearances, the most of any player in this timeframe (January 31 onwards).

His shot conversion rate in this time is 47%, compared to just 15% across his first 21 matches (five goals from 33 shots).

Against Fulham, Gyokeres was directly involved in three goals (two goals, one assist) in a match for Arsenal for the first time, while he both scored and assisted in the first half of a league game for the first time since doing so for Sporting CP against Farense in September 2023.