Just under seven years ago, Tottenham faced Liverpool in the Champions League final.

By full-time on Sunday, they could be a Championship club, with Tuesday's 2-1 defeat to Chelsea ensuring their battle to avoid relegation will go to the wire.

The odds are in Spurs' favour ahead of hosting Everton, as they boast a two-point advantage over 18th-placed West Ham and a significantly healthier goal difference.

A win would certainly keep Roberto De Zerbi's men up, and a point would realistically do the trick, regardless of how West Ham fare at home to Leeds United.

But throughout their dismal Premier League campaign, Spurs have frequently been reminded that nobody is too big to go down.

Ahead of what is sure to be a nail-biting day at the bottom of the league, we dive into the Opta data to preview Tottenham's clash with Everton.

What's expected? 

Perhaps this will help to ease any nerves among Tottenham's fanbase – the Opta supercomputer is firmly on their side.

Ahead of matchday 38, they are assigned an 85.5% chance of retaining their top-flight status, compared to West Ham's 14.5% probability.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Tottenham were victorious in 49.3% and escaped with a point in 23.2% against the Toffees. 

An Everton win, which would really make things interesting, is assigned a 27.4% likelihood.

Following a 3-0 win at Hill Dickinson Stadium in October, Tottenham are looking to complete their first league double over Everton since 2017-18.

And they have a strong home record against Everton, too. 

The Toffees have won on just one of their last 16 Premier League trips to Spurs (D4 L11), losing their last four such games by an aggregate score of 13-1.

In addition, this will be the 10th time Everton have played their final Premier League match of the season away to a London side, and they have only won one of the previous nine (2-0 at Fulham in 2008-09 – D2 L6).

The omens, then, are in Tottenham's favour. But that will count for nothing if De Zerbi's side do not perform.

Can Spurs handle final-day nerves?

Lots has changed for Spurs since they inflicted Everton's first-ever defeat at Hill Dickinson Stadium, with that victory pushing them up to third in the Premier League table.

For starters, they have sacked two managers since that triumph, with Igor Tudor following Thomas Frank out the door. 

And although De Zerbi's appointment has clearly resulted in an upturn, with Spurs taking as many points from their last five Premier League games (eight – W2 D2) as they did from their previous 17 (W1 D5 L11).

But the Italian has so far failed to find a cure for their home woes, as they were held to 1-1 draws by Brighton and Leeds in his two matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Going further back, Spurs are winless in their last 10 home league games (D4 L6), the second-longest run in their league history after a 14-game streak between October 1993 and April 1994.

It will be interesting to see how Spurs, with a fanbase, manager and squad unaccustomed to scrapping for their lives at the bottom of the table, handle the pressure – particularly if things start to go wrong.

And Everton have taken the lead at some point in each of their last three Premier League games, only to fail to win each time (D2 L1). 

Only in October 1999 have they led in but failed to win four consecutive matches in the competition.

Spurs have won seven points from losing positions this season, with only four teams in the Premier League collecting fewer. 

De Zerbi will hope it doesn't come to that, but it is sure to be a long 90 minutes for everyone at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – handling the pressure will be key.

Even if Spurs manage to finish 17th, replicating last season's finish, it would be the first time they have finished that low in consecutive top-flight campaigns since a run of three years between 1912-13 and 1914-15 (17th, 17th, 20th) – but they would certainly take it.

Everton bid fond farewell to Coleman

Fortunately for the relegation-threatened hosts, they are facing a team in dire form, who have little to play for after seeing their European hopes extinguished.

After last week's 3-1 defeat to Sunderland, Everton sit 12th in the table but can only climb as high as ninth on the final day, or potentially drop as low as 14th.

They are winless in their last six Premier League games (D3 L3) and have not gone longer without a victory since April 2024, under Sean Dyche (13). 

David Moyes last went seven without a win in the competition in January 2023 as West Ham boss, and he last did so with the Toffees way back in December 2010.

Even with no tangible prize on offer, Moyes should not be expected to shuffle his pack on the final matchday – which will be positive news for fans of his former club West Ham. 

Everton have used fewer players (22) and made fewer changes to their starting XI (57) than any other side in the Premier League this season.

There will be an emotional farewell for club captain Seamus Coleman, as he prepares to depart after 17 years at the club.

Coleman's 373 Premier League appearances for Everton are the outright most by any player in the club's history, ahead of Tim Howard (354).

Only 11 players have made more appearances in the competition for a single club, with nine of those being outfielders (also David de Gea for Manchester United and Jussi Jaaskelainen for Bolton Wanderers).

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Tottenham – Richarlison 

Richarlison helped to save Everton from relegation in 2021-22, and now he will attempt to do the same for Spurs, against his old club. 

The Brazilian has been involved in 15 Premier League goals this season (11 goals, four assists), only having a hand in more in 2019-20 (13 goals, three assists). 

He has also been involved in five goals in his last five league games against Everton (four goals, one assist).

Everton – Merlin Rohl

Rohl scored his first Premier League goal last weekend versus Sunderland, becoming the very first German player to score for the Toffees in the competition.

He was the first player of a new nationality to score for Everton in the Premier League since Guinea-Bissau's Beto in December 2023.

West Ham fans, perhaps even more so than those of an Everton persuasion, will be hoping he can conjure up some magic on Sunday.