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Women's Super League predictions: Can Chelsea close in on faltering leaders Man City?

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Reigning champions Chelsea will be hoping to apply more pressure on Women's Super League leaders Manchester City.

The Blues, fresh off their League Cup triumph, moved within seven points of Man City on Wednesday with a win over Brighton, and will now prepare to take on London City Lionesses.

Man City have dropped five points across their last three league games, but will be confident of returning to winning ways at home to Tottenham.

Manchester United, who followed up their League Cup final defeat with a goalless draw at West Ham, host Everton while the Hammers travel to Arsenal to wrap up Saturday's action.

On Sunday, Brighton face in-form Liverpool while Leicester City will look to gain some momentum in the relegation battle when they go up against Aston Villa.

Here's how the Opta supercomputer predicts MD18 of the WSL will unfold in what could be a defining weekend in the title race.

MANCHESTER UNITED V EVERTON

Man Utd remain unbeaten in 13 games against Everton in the WSL (W11 D2), with only Chelsea (16 versus West Ham) and Arsenal (14 versus Reading) facing an opponent more times in the competition without suffering a single defeat.  

And United boss Marc Skinner has won more games as a manager against Everton than any other opponent (P17 W14 D2 L1), also going unbeaten in the last 15 versus the Toffees (W13 D2).

However, Everton have won their last four games in the WSL, with Scott Phelan only the second manager in WSL history to win each of their first three matches of a spell in charge of a team having been appointed in mid-season.

Nevertheless, United are overwhelming favourites, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 74.8% chance of victory. Everton have a 10.4% likelihood of taking three points, while there is a 14.8% chance of a draw.

United have lost only two of their last 19 WSL home games (W11 D6) with only Arsenal (one) losing fewer in the top flight since the start of the 2024-25 campaign.

MANCHESTER CITY V TOTTENHAM

Man City have dropped points to both Villa (0-0) and Arsenal (1-0) in their last three games (W1), but the Opta supercomputer predicts the league leaders to pick up three points against Spurs.

Andree Jeglertz's side won 79.3% of the pre-match simulations, while Spurs won 8.1% of them and earned a draw in 12.6%.

If Spurs are to leave Joie Stadium with at least a point, they will need to keep Khadija Shaw quiet.

Shaw has scored 12 WSL goals against Tottenham, with only Vivianne Miedema scoring more times against an opponent in the competition (14 versus Bristol City).

The Jamaican is the only player to net three hat-tricks against a side in the WSL, with those coming in each of her last three home appearances against Spurs in the top-flight.

Man City have won each of their last eight WSL meetings with Spurs and are only currently on a longer winning run in the competition against Leicester (10).

LONDON CITY LIONESSES V CHELSEA

This will be Chelsea's 64th London derby in the Women’s Super League – they have lost only 11 of those, but each defeat has come against Arsenal.

In derby matches against clubs other than the Gunners, the Blues have a record of 30 wins and two draws, winning each of their last seven without conceding.

The Opta supercomputer predicts the run to continue for Chelsea, who have a 76.2% win probability and 10.3% chance of a draw, while the Lionesses have a 10.3% likelihood of winning.

London City Lionesses are on their longest losing run of the season (three), while they have lost each of their seven WSL games against sides that finished in the top four last season by an aggregate score of 21-5.

Chelsea have won 24 of their last 26 WSL games against newly promoted opposition (D1 L1), with the exceptions being a 1-1 draw at home to West Ham in March 2019 and a 2-1 away loss at Liverpool in September 2022. 

ARSENAL V WEST HAM

Arsenal have lost only one of their 15 WSL games this season (W9 D5), to league leaders Man City in October – the European champions have gone 10+ league matches unbeaten for the first time since November 2022 (18 without defeat).

The Gunners have also kept a clean sheet in each of their last four league games, their longest run without conceding in the WSL since a run of five wins to nil between November 2024 and January 2025.

The Opta supercomputer has backed Arsenal here, giving them a whopping 84.9% chance of victory to West Ham's 5.5%. The draw was the outcome in 9.6% of the model's simulations.

West Ham have lost each of their six London derbies in the WSL this season, last winning one in April 2025, 7-1 away to Crystal Palace.

Arsenal have won 12 of their 14 WSL games against West Ham (D1 L1), winning three in a row since a 2-1 loss in February 2024.  

BRIGHTON V LIVERPOOL

Liverpool have won three of their last five league games (L2), seeing them move up to 10th in the WSL, four points clear of bottom side Leicester.

However, Liverpool remain winless in each of their last nine WSL away games (D1 L8), though their last victory on the road was at Brighton in April 2025. 

Indeed, Reds manager Gareth Taylor has his best 100% win rate against Brighton on the road in the top-flight, winning four out of four matches.

The Opta supercomputer has backed Brighton as favourites at Broadfield Stadium, giving them a win probability of 43% to Liverpool's 30.2%, while the chances of a draw came in at 26.8%.

Brighton will be hoping for another contribution from Fran Kirby, who has been directly involved in more WSL goals versus Liverpool (11 – eight goals, three assists) than any other side in the competition.

LEICESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA

Leicester lost each of their first five WSL games against Villa between September 2021 and January 2024, but are unbeaten in four league meetings with the Villans since (W1 D3).

Villa have only won more WSL away games against Brighton and West Ham (both three) than Leicester (three), though the Villans did lose 3-0 in this fixture last season.

The Opta supercomputer has predicted a close encounter at the King Power Stadium, with Leicester winning 34.8% of the pre-match simulations to Villa's 39.3%, while a draw was the outcome on 25.9% of occasions.

Bottom side Leicester have failed to score or scored exactly once across their 16 league games this season (each eight times); only Yeovil Town have gone longer from the start of a WSL campaign without netting multiple goals in a match (all 18 in 2017-18 and all 20 in 2018-19).

Villa, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four WSL away games, despite leading in two of those. The Villans have only once lost five in a row on the road in the competition, doing so between December 2020 and April 2021.