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​Women's Super League predictions: Chelsea backed to edge top-of-the-table showdown

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The Women's Super League table is starting to take shape as the campaign reaches its 10th matchday, and there are plenty of intriguing fixtures on the schedule this week.

Manchester City replaced Chelsea at the top of the tree last week, as the defending champions routed West Ham 5-0 and Sonia Bompastor's Blues were held to a frustrating draw by Everton.

And as City and Chelsea prepare to go head-to-head at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, both teams have a chance to land an early blow in the title race.

London City Lionesses are lurking in third ahead of the weekend's action, and they are involved in one of three derbies to take place on Sunday.

While Alexia Putellas and company face Arsenal in another star-studded clash, there is also a second city derby between Aston Villa and Birmingham City, and an East London grudge match between West Ham and Charlton Athletic. 

But who will be the winners and losers? With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we delve into the pre-match insights. 

MANCHESTER UNITED V CRYSTAL PALACE

The Progress with Unity Stadium hosts the early kick-off on Saturday, with Manchester United hoping to continue their revival under Eva Olid.

After going unbeaten in their last 11 games in all competitions (W8 D3), United could equal their club-record unbeaten streak, having enjoyed sequences of 12 matches without losing ending in March 2023 and February 2026.

They are assigned a 71.8% chance of beating Crystal Palace – the highest win probability assigned to any team on MD10.

The Eagles' hopes of an away win are rated at a mere 12%, and United are the only team to face newly promoted sides more than twice in the WSL and never lose such a game, winning all 15 of those matches by an aggregate score of 43-5.

Palace should be buoyed by their 3-2 victory over Charlton on MD9, but this will be Palace's 32nd match in the WSL, and they are yet to win consecutive games.

CHELSEA V MANCHESTER CITY

The weekend's headline fixture takes place shortly afterwards at Stamford Bridge, as Chelsea and Manchester City go head-to-head for top spot.

This is the first WSL season to see two teams remain unbeaten after nine matchdays since 2020-21 (Chelsea and Man Utd on that occasion).

And this will be the third instance of two unbeaten sides meeting at least 10 matchdays into a campaign, after 2020-21 (Chelsea 2-1 United on MD11) and 2018-19 (City 2-0 Arsenal on MD10).

Chelsea suffered their joint-second-heaviest WSL defeat when they last met City in February, going down 5-1 at the Etihad Stadium with the since-departed Kerolin scoring a hat-trick. However, the Blues have not lost back-to-back league games against the Citizens since a run of four defeats between 2015 and 2017.

And Opta's predictive model makes them favourites on home turf this week, with a 49.1% win probability.

City's hopes are rated at 25.3%, while the 25.6% likelihood of a draw is the largest assigned to any game this weekend.

If Chelsea are to come out on top, they will have to keep a close eye on Khadija Shaw, who should be well-rested after being left on the bench throughout City's 4-1 victory over Inter in the Women's Champions League.

Shaw has 12 goals in nine WSL games this season, with only Vivianne Miedema (14 goals for Arsenal in both 2018-19 and 2019-20) ever netting more in a team's first 10 matches of a campaign. And Shaw could become the third player to net in 10 consecutive WSL starts, after Sam Kerr in November 2021 and Beth England in September 2020.

Chelsea will also need to start being more clinical in attack, following draws with Everton (1-1) and Hacken (0-0). The Blues have had 215 shots in the WSL this term, with their per-game average of 24 being the most by any side in a single campaign in the competition.

TOTTENHAM V EVERTON

Tottenham are flying high in fourth place following back-to-back wins, and the Opta model fancies them to get the better of Everton. Saturday's hosts are assigned a 51.4% chance of taking all three points, with Everton's win probability only estimated at 22.3%.

Since the start of last season, only Man City (16) and Chelsea (12) have won more home WSL matches than Spurs' nine, and they could now win six home games in the competition within a single calendar year for the first time.

Additionally, since the start of May, only City (31), Chelsea (29) and Arsenal (23) have accumulated more WSL points than Tottenham (22). 

And Everton will have to be particularly wary of their hosts' set-piece prowess; no team in the WSL can better Spurs' six goals from dead balls in 2026-27, which is already just one fewer than they scored from set-plays throughout the entirety of 2025-26 (seven in 22 matches).

Everton have spent just 6% of their total WSL game time in the lead this season, accounting for 48 minutes and seven seconds. Only pointless Charlton have led for a lower share of their time on the pitch (3%) and for fewer total minutes (28 minutes, 54 seconds).

BRIGHTON V LIVERPOOL

In Saturday's late kick-off, Liverpool will look to halt their slide down the table when they take on Brighton at the American Express Stadium.

Liverpool have gone five WSL matches without a win since overcoming Everton in September's Merseyside derby.

It has been a case of style over substance for the Reds, who are completing an average of 466 passes per game in the WSL this season – their most in a single season.

Liverpool's 58.2% possession average is also their second-highest in a campaign, behind their 58.9% in 2013, while their 84.9% passing accuracy is also their best in a season.

And, with Brighton winning their last three home games in the WSL and chasing four straight victories on their own turf for the very first time, the supercomputer favours the hosts.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the model, Brighton won 49.2% to Liverpool's 25.3%, with the remaining 25.5% of scenarios seeing the points shared.

ASTON VILLA V BIRMINGHAM CITY

Local bragging rights are on the line in all three of Sunday's games, starting with Aston Villa's clash with Birmingham City at Villa Park.

Though Villa sit ninth in the table and Birmingham are 13th, only four points separate these rivals, so the visitors could drag their neighbours into the relegation battle.

However, Birmingham are winless in their last three meetings with Villa across all competitions (D2 L1) since a 1-0 away win in the WSL in November 2021.

And with home advantage on their side, Villa are assigned a 49.9% chance of victory, compared to a 24.8% probability for Birmingham.

However, there are reasons for positivity if you are from the blue side of Birmingham, as Villa have lost six of their last nine home WSL matches (W1 D2), conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game in that sequence.

And only Man City star Shaw (12) has scored more WSL goals this season than Birmingham's Oceane Hurtre (seven).

The only players to net more times in a campaign for a newly promoted team are Beth Mead in 2015 (12 for Sunderland), Katie Lampson in 2022-23 (nine for Liverpool) and Amalie Thestrup in 2023-24 (nine for Bristol City).

WEST HAM V CHARLTON ATHLETIC

Having failed to pick up a point through nine games, Charlton are the only side below Birmingham going into this weekend's fixtures. 

And if they are to stop their season from truly unravelling, a victory over West Ham at Victoria Road Stadium may be a must. 

Charlton could become the first team to start a WSL season with 10 straight defeats, having already made the joint-worst start in the competition's history (Leicester City also lost their first nine matches in 2021).

West Ham, meanwhile, have already won two London derbies in three attempts this season (L1), overcoming London City (2-1) and Palace (1-0).

That is as many victories as they managed in their previous 14 WSL games against fellow capital clubs (W2 D2 L10).

Following a 4-1 victory over Liverpool in their last home WSL match, West Ham are backed by the supercomputer to win back-to-back home games for the first time since February 2025 – they won 58.6% of our pre-match sims, compared to Charlton's 19.9%.

ARSENAL V LONDON CITY LIONESSES

The action concludes at the Emirates Stadium with a huge matchup between Arsenal (64.2%) and London City Lionesses (16.7%), who are truly in the mix for Champions League qualification.

London City enter MD10 three places and six points above the Gunners, who have endured a difficult start to the campaign, though they come into this game having held onto a point in a 1-1 draw with Barcelona in the Champions League.

And Arsenal's struggles have been particularly pronounced at home, where they have drawn four straight WSL matches, becoming the first team to do so in the competition's history. 

Only in 2014 (D2 L4) have the Gunners dropped points in five different home matches in a single WSL campaign.

They do have a perfect record against London City, though, winning all seven of the sides' head-to-head meetings in all competitions, by an aggregate score of 22-1.

But London City should certainly make things difficult, having gone unbeaten in their last three away WSL matches (W2 D1), scoring 12 goals across that span. 

That is just one fewer goal than they managed in their first 12 away matches in the WSL combined (13), while only Chelsea (17) and Spurs (14) have more away WSL goals this season than their 13. 

History could be made by Kadidiatou Diani, who has either scored (three goals) or assisted (three) on each of her first four away appearances in the WSL.

She is just the second player to achieve that feat, after Mead in 2015, and no player has registered a goal involvement in their first five WSL away outings.