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The Rugby Championship: South Africa and New Zealand to battle it out in two-horse race

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The Southern Hemisphere's showpiece international tournament returns this Saturday.

Argentina, Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand collide over the course of six matchdays to decide who will reign supreme in rugby south of the equator.

South Africa used their 2023 World Cup conquest as a launchpad for last year's edition of the Rugby Championship, denying the All Blacks their fifth consecutive crown, with the Springboks winning all but one of their games.

New Zealand will be desperate to resume normal service this year, having lost both their showdowns with South Africa last time out, as well as recording just their third-ever defeat to Argentina.

Unsurprisingly, the Springboks and the All Blacks go into the annual competition as the outstanding favourites, with the two sides' much-anticipated first encounter not coming until the third matchday.

Meanwhile, Australia will be eager to bounce back after a 2-1 series defeat to the British and Irish Lions, who recorded their second consecutive series win over the Wallabies.

Joe Schmidt's side also turned in a dismal showing in the 2024 Rugby Championship, finishing bottom of the standings with just one solitary win to their name.

Elsewhere, Argentina will be keen to capitalise on an encouraging summer, with the Pumas overcoming the Lions 28-24 in Dublin before following up a defeat to England with a comprehensive winning display against fellow South Americans, Uruguay.

Here, we run through the best Opta stats ahead of this weekend's action, picking out the players to watch in each contest.

SOUTH AFRICA V AUSTRALIA

The Springboks host the Wallabies at Ellis Park in the 2025 Rugby Championship curtain-raiser, a repeat of last year's opener, which saw the South African's run amok in Brisbane, scoring five tries in a bonus-point 33-7 win.

Rassie Erasmus' side have had the better of their Australian counterparts in the last four meetings between the two teams, winning each of those matches.

And South Africa will be seeking to extend that streak to five, which would be the longest winning streak in the fixture since Australia won five back-to-back between 2010 and 2012.

The Wallabies face a tall order heading to the Rainbow Nation, having not recorded a win on Springbok soil since August 2011, or, indeed, a victory in Johannesburg since 1963.

Two-time World Cup-winning captain Siya Kolisi leads the Springboks into the Rugby Championship series unbeaten in seven Tests, with their last defeat coming in the form of a 29-28 defeat to Argentina.

The Springboks will be determined to continue their rich vein of form by playing front-foot rugby, having made 10.5 entries into the opposition 22m zone per game at the 2024 Rugby Championship, the most of any team. 

Only New Zealand (three) scored more points per entry than the Springboks (2.8); Australia (7.3 entries, 2.1 pts) were ranked last in both categories.

The Wallabies are reshuffling the pack after their Lions Tour defeat, as well as finishing bottom of the Rugby Championship on the last two consecutive occasions, with James O'Connor set to play his first game for Australia in three years.

Australia have gone eight consecutive men's Tests without giving up a try directly from a turnover, a stark improvement from the eight tries they conceded in that way over the eight Tests before that.

Since the conclusion of the 2024 Rugby Championship, they are the only side in the World Rugby top 10 yet to concede a turnover try.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

South Africa – Edwill van der Merwe

Edwill van der Merwe has crossed for five tries in his first three Test matches, scoring at least once in each game.

He is now aiming to become the first player from a Rugby Championship or Six Nations side to score in each of his first four Tests since England's Jamie Blamire achieved the feat in 2021.

Australia – Len Ikitau

Despite being a member of the losing side against the Lions, Ikitau was in inspired form and looked a constant threat for the Wallabies.

He beat 12 defenders during the Test series, the highest total recorded by any player.

NEW ZEALAND v ARGENTINA 

New Zealand will be eager to avoid the potential banana skin that is Argentina in this year's Rugby Championship, as they look to reclaim the title they lost to the Springboks last time out.

In its present four-team format, New Zealand have been crowned champions in a record nine instances since the tournament's reshaping in 2012.

Since losing to South Africa in September 2024, the All Blacks have won nine of their last 10 Tests, avenging an autumn internationals defeat to France with a 3-0 series whitewash in July.

Opening their 2025 campaign away at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes in Argentina, the All Blacks will be confident that they can extend their four-game winning run to five, having been convincing 41-12 winners when the two nations last met in South America.

New Zealand's record versus Argentina has been reflective of their dominance over the years, losing on just three occasions in 39 Tests.

New Zealand (13) have made more offloads per game in men's Tests in 2024 than any of the other three teams in the Rugby Championship; however, Argentina (three) are the only team to have scored multiple tries directly from offloads in that period (NZ one, AUS 0, SA 0).

Meanwhile, Los Pumas finally won their first Rugby Championship campaign opener with a win over the All Blacks in last year's series, having lost their opening match in each of their previous 11 appearances.

Argentina's next win in men's Tests will be their 250th, and they have won six games across the last three editions of the Rugby Championship, as many as they had won across all previous entries in the tournament (incl. 2020 Tri-Nations).

However, their 8% win rate against New Zealand is their lowest against any team they have faced more than four times.

Argentinian rugby icon and head coach Felipe Contepomi's side have finished last in seven of the 10 Rugby Championships since its inception. However, the last two instalments of the competition have seen Los Pumas finish in third, and they will be seeking to go one step further this time around.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

New Zealand – Will Jordan

One of the highest-rated players currently operating in world rugby, Jordan has turned out 44 times for the All Blacks, with the fullback scoring 19 tries across his last 18 Tests, including five tries in his last four Tests.

Notably, the Crusaders back has scored five tries across his last two starting appearances against Argentina.

Argentina – Juan Cruz Mallia

This has a real battle of the fullbacks feel to it, with Mallia being Argentina's potential weapon of choice. The outside back made nine offloads – including one break assist – in the 2024 edition of The Rugby Championship, more than any other player.

He finished with two offloads, two tackle breaks, and one try in his last Test against New Zealand (17 August 2024).