All eyes are once again on Manchester United as they look to turn around their Premier League form against Aston Villa before the international break.

United were winless in nine games ahead of Tuesday's meeting with Roma in the Champions League, and things looked to be getting worse when they found themselves 2-0 down after 17 minutes.

However, they orchestrated a superb second-half comeback to win 3-2 and earn their first victory since September 10, thanks to Matheus Cunha's late brace, and ease some of the pressure on Michael Carrick's shoulders.

But with the threat of dropping into the relegation zone now a very real worry, the test is to translate that form into the top flight against a Villa side on the way up the rankings.

After failing to win any of their first four league games, they are now unbeaten in five (W3 D2), though they come into this match on the back of a 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Barcelona in the Champions League.

This will be Unai Emery's 200th Premier League game as a manager, though, and Villa will want to make sure he celebrates the landmark on a high.

So, who will come out on top at Old Trafford on Sunday? Here, using Opta data, we look at the key storylines.

We're back at Old Trafford on Sunday

— Manchester United (@ManUtd) November 5, 2026

What's expected?

There is not much between these teams according to the Opta supercomputer, though United are narrow favourites to clinch all three points, winning 39% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.

That is helped by the fact that United have only lost two of their 31 Premier League home games against Villa (W24 D5), 1-0 defeats in both 2009-10 and 2021-22.

Villa won their first Premier League match against the Red Devils under Emery in November 2022, but they have won just one of their seven since then (D1 L5).

That victory came in December last year at Villa Park, thanks to Morgan Rogers' brace, but they then lost the reverse fixture 3-1 in March.

Emery's side are still given a 34.5% chance of triumphing this weekend, as they look for a third straight win on the road in the top flight.

There is still a 26.5% chance of a draw, which means a stalemate is fairly likely, but it does not feel like a point will be enough for United this weekend.

Have United found their turning point?

The first 17 minutes against Roma seemed to sum up all of United's recent struggles, and they were lucky not to be further behind when the half-time whistle blew.

But they were a vastly different team after the break, helped by Roma's complacency, as Cunha led the charge, winning the penalty from which Bruno Fernandes scored at the second attempt, before bagging himself a brace.

He then got himself sent off with two quickfire bookings – a needless late tackle after excessive celebrations – but his hard work had already got the job done.

4 - No team have won more UEFA Champions League games from two or more goals behind than Manchester United (also Real Madrid). Salvation. https://t.co/sclavosZVa

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 3, 2026

United's confidence will be buoyed by the dramatics of Tuesday's victory, and Carrick will be looking to replicate the second-half dominance. 10 of their 15 shots against Roma came after the break, with 2.5 of their 2.7 total expected goals (xG) generated coming after the interval.

However, their league form is a very real worry as United are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D4 L3).

Only between April and May 2025 have they had a longer run without winning in the competition (eight games), which was ended by a 2-0 home win over Villa.

Indeed, the Red Devils have just one win in nine Premier League games this season (D4 L4). They have not started a league season with one win in 10 games since 1972-73 (W1 D4 L5).

Only three teams in top-flight history have followed a season where they finished in the top three with as few as one win in their first 10 games – Derby County in 1894-95, Chelsea in 1920-21, and Arsenal in 1953-54.

There are issues at both ends of the pitch for Carrick to address, but their defensive frailty has proven to be their biggest weakness.

United are one of only two sides without a Premier League clean sheet this season, along with Ipswich Town. It is the longest into a league season they have gone without a clean sheet since 1986-87 (10 games).

The last side to finish in the top three of the top flight, then fail to keep a clean sheet in their first 10 games of the next season, were Liverpool in 1966-67.

United have conceded 15 goals in total in the league, with five of those coming across their last two losses against Bournemouth (3-0) and Chelsea (2-0), respectively.

There were signs of positivity in the first half against Chelsea as well, before a second-half capitulation, and consistency across 90 minutes is another concern that needs to be fixed if United want their first league win since MD2 of the competition.

Villa aim to celebrate Emery's landmark

While there were jubilant celebrations at Old Trafford on Tuesday, Villa endured a much different ending against LaLiga champions Barcelona.

It was their first defeat in Europe this season and saw them suffer their joint-heaviest defeat in major European competition, having also lost by three goals to Royal Antwerp in September 1975 (1-4) and Inter in November 1990 (0-3), both in the UEFA Cup.

Moreover, no Premier League side has committed more errors leading to goals in all competitions this season than Villa (seven, level with Sunderland).

But while Emery was frustrated that his side were not more clinical against Barcelona, he will not be dwelling on the result for too long as they aim to continue their rise up the Premier League.

Their five-game unbeaten streak has lifted them up to 10th in the table, and Emery, who is reportedly in advanced talks over a new Villa deal, will be keen to continue their upward trajectory in his landmark match.

He is the fifth Spaniard to reach 200 matches in the Premier League after Rafael Benitez, Roberto Martinez, Pep Guardiola, and Mikel Arteta, with Benitez's (2-0 win) and Arteta's (1-1 draw) 200th games also coming against United.

Unai Emery's first game in charge of the Villa, #OnThisDay four years ago  https://t.co/hpiYbgtARQ

— Aston Villa (@AstonVilla) November 6, 2026

There are good signs that they can come away with all three points, as well, given Villa have won their last two away league matches, as many as in their previous 12 combined (D5 L5). They last had a longer run between November and December 2025 (four).

And a fast start could be the key to letting the nerves creep back in at Old Trafford, given United's recent record.

Villa have scored in the first half of each of their last five Premier League games, having gone five games in a row beforehand without a goal in the first 45 minutes.

The Villans last scored in the first half of six league games in a row between May and August 2023.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

In 2026, Fernandes ranks first for each of chances created (104), open-play chances created (80), big chances created (27), successful final-third passes (531), passes/crosses played into the opposition box (289), and throughballs (29).

He is averaging 3.8 chances created per 90 minutes under Carrick, the best by any United player under a single manager in the league since 2003-04 (min. 1,000 mins played).

Since his United debut in February 2020, Fernandes has both taken (50) and scored (44) the most penalties of any Premier League player across all competitions (excluding shoot-outs), after his spot-kick against Roma.

Aston Villa – Nicolas Jackson

Nicolas Jackson has scored five goals in eight Premier League appearances for Villa.

Another goal for Nicolas Jackson https://t.co/3ACDrVxbTs

— Aston Villa (@AstonVilla) November 1, 2026

He is only the fourth Villa player to reach five goals in that few appearances, along with Dean Saunders in 1992 (four), Dion Dublin in 1998 (two) and Ollie Watkins in 2020 (seven).

Across all competitions, Jackson has netted eight goals from 35 shots and is averaging a goal every 121 minutes. His 22.9% shot conversion rate is also the third-highest in the squad.