The race for Champions League qualification from the Premier League is extremely tight this campaign, and Liverpool and Newcastle United both want to stay in the fight.

Only three points and three places separate the sides heading into Saturday's head-to-head clash, with the Reds holding the advantage at this time.

Liverpool's mid-season resurgence has fizzled out, with their last win in the top flight coming in late December against Wolves – they are winless in five since.

Newcastle, meanwhile, were unable to build momentum after their incredible last-gasp 4-3 win over Leeds United, failing to win either of their Premier League matches since then.

However, both teams finished the league phase of the Champions League in high spirits, with Liverpool securing a top-eight berth with their thrashing of Qarabag, while Newcastle took a point against holders Paris Saint-Germain.

But back in the league, can either of these sides reignite their push for the top four?

Here, we use Opta data to see who is most likely to come out on top at Anfield.

What's expected?

Newcastle could be exactly the opponents Liverpool need to face right now, as historically, they have always landed on their feet against the Magpies.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 18 Premier League games against Newcastle (W13 D5), since a 2-0 away loss in December 2015.

The Reds triumphed 3-2 against 10 men in the reverse fixture in August, with Rio Ngumoha scoring the winning goal in the 10th minute of stoppage time at St James' Park.

And now Liverpool are looking to complete the Premier League double over Newcastle for the 12th time – it would be the most doubles they have achieved against a specific opponent in the competition (currently 11, joint with West Ham).

Newcastle's hopes of stopping that from happening look quite slim given their dismal record at Anfield.

They have failed to win any of their last 29 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D5 L24), their joint-longest winless run against an opponent in their league history (also 29 at Man Utd between 1973 and 2012).

And it is Liverpool that are the favourites to triumph this weekend, winning 52.4% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Newcastle came away with three points from 23.3% of those sims, with a draw slightly more likely at 24.3%.

Liverpool looking to shake off January blues

While Liverpool found their footing in their 6-0 thrashing of Qarabag, Arne Slot will now be keen to see that performance translated into the Premier League.

Four draws and a loss – and a dramatic last-gasp one at that – to start 2026 has seen Liverpool slip down the table to sixth, and although they are only two points behind the top four, Manchester United and Chelsea have taken advantage of their recent downturn.

It is their longest winless run in a single season since an 11-match streak between November and January in 2002-03, under Gerard Houllier.

Indeed, Liverpool could fail to win each of their opening six league fixtures of a calendar year for the first time since 1954 (first 10), a year in which they were relegated.

This is a fixture which has provided plenty of drama in the past, which might not bode well for Liverpool, who have struggled for goals at Anfield at times this term.

Since beating Bournemouth 4-2 on the opening weekend, the Reds have not scored more than twice in any of their last 10 Premier League home games and are averaging just 1.45 goals per game at home this season, their fewest in a campaign since 2011-12 (1.26).

But one thing you can probably count on with the reigning champions is late drama.

No side has scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League games this season than Liverpool (13), but they have also conceded a 90th-minute winning goal three times in 2025-26 – their most ever in a single campaign in the competition.

While Liverpool's attackers are likely to carry a real threat, Slot will also be looking elsewhere, with influences all over the pitch.

Dominik Szoboszlai has had more shots from outside the box than any other player in the Premier League this season (33).

No player has scored more goals from outside the box for Premier League clubs in all competitions this season than Szoboszlai (five, level with Phil Foden), while he is also Liverpool's leading assister in all competitions in 2025-26 (seven).

Virgil van Dijk could also provide a threat from the back. Since his Premier League debut for Liverpool in January 2018, the Dutchman has the most goals of any defender in the competition (22).

He also became the first central defender ever to assist three goals in a single Champions League game against Qarabag, and Slot knows he has options all over the pitch to cause Newcastle problems.

Can Howe end away-day headaches?

Newcastle and PSG could not be separated in their 1-1 draw at the Parc des Princes in the Champions League on Wednesday, with both teams settling for a play-off place, but Eddie Howe was thrilled with his side's performance.

The Magpies have reached the knockout stages of the Champions League for the very first time, despite missing out on the top eight, while Howe became the first manager to avoid defeat in each of their first three Champions League meetings with Luis Enrique (W1 D2).

But their attention now turns back to the Premier League, where they have work to do if they want to finish in the Champions League places this term.

A 0-0 draw with Wolves was followed by a 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa, leaving Newcastle ninth in the table, with doubts lingering over their attack.

Against Villa, Newcastle generated chances worth 2.3 expected goals (xG) without hitting the back of the net. It is their highest xG tally without scoring in a Premier League game since a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace in September 2022 (2.8 xG).

Only Sunderland and Wolves (both seven) have failed to score in more Premier League away games than Newcastle this season (six).

In fact, 70% of the Magpies' away goals this term (7/10) have come in their two wins on the road (4-1 v Everton, 3-1 v Burnley).

On the road, they have had 128 shots worth 11.0 xG, so Newcastle are massively underperforming in front of goal.

Their last away game, at Wolves, saw them record a fourth goalless draw of the Premier League season, which is four times as many 0-0s as they had across their previous two league campaigns combined.

And Newcastle could also be uniquely vulnerable to Liverpool's knack for scoring late goals. 

In the final 15 minutes of matches, only Bournemouth (13) have conceded more goals than Newcastle (12), with one of those coming in that dramatic 3-2 loss in the reverse fixture.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool – Mohamed Salah

Against no side has Salah been involved in more Premier League goals than he has against Newcastle (19 – 10 goals, nine assists).

An assist in this match will see him become the first player in Premier League history to record double figures for both goals and assists against an opponent.

The Egyptian has four assists to his name in the league this term, more than any other Liverpool player, despite having the fourth-most expected assists (2.9 xA) and the third-most chances created (35).

Newcastle United – Bruno Guimaraes

Guimaraes, who was only fit enough for the bench against PSG, has made more defensive line-breaking passes than any other player in the Premier League this season (35).

Meanwhile, only Granit Xhaka has made more line-breaking passes that have led to a goal (eight) than the Magpies captain (six).

Guimaraes is also Newcastle's top scorer in the Premier League this term with eight goals. He has doubled his expected goals tally (4.0 xG) and also has the best shot conversion rate (25.8%) of anyone in the team.