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The Numbers Game: Fulham eye derby upset as Rosenior gets Chelsea watching brief

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Chelsea began the post-Enzo Maresca era with a creditable 1-1 draw against Manchester City on Sunday, with youth coach Calum McFarlane in the dugout. 

And the Blues' fans did not have to wait long to discover the identity of Maresca's permanent successor, with Liam Rosenior joining from Strasbourg on a six-and-a-half-year contract on Tuesday.

Rosenior will be present when Chelsea make the short trip to Fulham for Wednesday's Premier League fixture, though he will be watching from the stands as McFarlane prepares the team.

And Fulham will be no pushovers following a run of five Premier League games without a defeat (three wins, two draws), with that revival moving Marco Silva's men within just three points of their close neighbours.

Indeed, Fulham are among a cluster of seven teams that are within touching distance of Chelsea in the table, with the Blues needing a result not only to hold off that group, but also to cut the gap to fourth-placed Liverpool, who make the daunting trip to Arsenal on Thursday.

Ahead of this midweek clash at Craven Cottage, we used Opta insights to pick out the key storylines and players to watch.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is siding with Chelsea ahead of this game, but not decisively so.

The Blues are assigned a win probability of 42.1%, compared to Fulham’s 32.4%. The remaining 25.5% of pre-match simulations were drawn.

And in the model's 2025-26 season predictions, Chelsea are assigned a 22.3% chance of Champions League qualification.

Fulham, meanwhile, are given a 2.6% chance of making the Europa League for 2026-27, following their recent upturn in form.

Chelsea have traditionally dominated this rivalry, winning six of their last seven Premier League matches at Craven Cottage, with the exception being a 2-1 defeat there in January 2023, under Graham Potter.

When Fulham returned to the Premier League in 2022, they had won just one of their 30 matches against Chelsea in the competition, drawing 10 and losing 19.

Since then, they have managed two victories in seven derbies against the Blues, drawing once and losing on four occasions. 

But Fulham have lost four of their last six London derbies at home overall (two wins), having previously gone unbeaten in seven such games. 

They could lose three straight home matches against fellow capital clubs for the first time since April 2023, having gone down to Arsenal and Crystal Palace in their two most recent such games.

Comeback kings sharing the load 

Fulham have shown tremendous resilience during their recent unbeaten run, which came after a stretch of seven defeats in 10 matches (three wins).

That downturn led to question marks over Silva's long-term future and had the Cottagers glancing nervously over their shoulders towards the relegation zone, but they have since soared 14 points clear of danger.

Sunday's last-gasp 2-2 draw with Liverpool saw them come from behind to salvage a point for the second game in a row (previously 1-1 versus Crystal Palace).   

Only twice in their history in the competition have Fulham fallen behind in three or more successive games but avoided defeat in each – a run of four matches in August and September 2010, and a three-match streak in October and November 2012.

They fell 2-1 behind to Cody Gakpo's strike after 93 minutes and 53 seconds last time out, only for Harrison Reed's thunderbolt to drag them level after 96 minutes and 16 seconds. 

Gakpo's goal was the fourth-latest on record (since 2006-07) that a team has fallen behind in a Premier League match before avoiding defeat, and the latest since March 2024, when Brentford fell behind to Manchester United after 95:47 but recovered to draw.

One key component of Fulham's recent success has been their ability to share out the goals, with Rodrigo Muniz unlikely to return from injury until February.

Reed's goal on Sunday made him the 12th different Fulham player to net in the Premier League this season. Only Brighton (15), Arsenal and Tottenham (both 13) have had more unique scorers this term.

Harry Wilson leads all his team-mates with six goals, while his nine goal involvements since the start of November (five goals, four assists) are second only to Erling Haaland's 11 in the entire competition.

Fulham's last seven Premier League goals have been scored by six different players, with only Raul Jimenez netting twice in that span (also Wilson, Reed, Tom Cairney, Emile Smith Rowe and Calvin Bassey). If their charge up the table is to continue, that collective approach could be crucial.

Chelsea out to impress another new boss

Maresca was barely out the door before reports suggested Rosenior – who represented Fulham during his playing career – was his likely replacement, having won plaudits for his work with Strasbourg, who are also overseen by Chelsea's ownership group BlueCo.

And following confirmation of Rosenior's appointment, Chelsea's players are now playing to impress yet another new boss, the club's fifth since the BlueCo regime took control in 2022 (excluding caretakers Bruno Saltor and Frank Lampard).

In fact, Fulham boss Silva has faced a different Chelsea manager in all four of his home Premier League matches against the Blues, with both Everton and his current club.

Ahead of facing McFarlane, Silva has taken on Maurizio Sarri, Potter, Mauricio Pochettino and Maresca, beating the former duo (Sarri with Everton in March 2019, Potter with Fulham in January 2023), then losing to the latter pair.

Chelsea's performance against City at the Etihad will certainly have impressed Rosenior, as they won the expected goals (xG) battle by 1.9 to 1.0.

That is despite them only having eight shots to City's 14 and less than half their opponents' final-third entries (24 to 57).

Chelsea have lost just one of their last seven away Premier League games, winning three and drawing three, though all of those stalemates have come on their last three road trips.

And overall, the Blues only have one victory in their last eight Premier League matches, drawing five and losing two. They could now draw three straight league games for the first time since February 2023 – a run that included a 0-0 draw with Fulham.

So while Rosenior is inheriting a supremely talented squad, there is plenty of work for the 41-year-old to do. He will hope to see some positive signs on Wednesday.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Fulham – Harry Wilson 

Wilson has scored six Premier League goals already this season, only netting more in a single campaign in 2019-20 (seven). 

The Welshman has also recorded 10 goal involvements in a Premier League season (six goals, four assists) for just the second time, after 2023-24 (four goals, six assists).

Chelsea – Enzo Fernandez

Fernandez netted his sixth Premier League goal of the season last time out, equalling his best return in a single campaign (also six in 2024-25).

Among central midfielders, only Bruno Guimaraes (seven) has scored more Premier League goals this season than the Argentine, who could also score in three successive appearances in the competition for the very first time.